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Title:: Distribution Changes of Chinese Skink (Eumeces chinensis) in China: the Impacts of Global Climate Change

Author(s):: Chen YANG¹^*; Songhua TANG²; Zhenhua LUO³; ¹ Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China
² Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
³ Molecular and Behavioral Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, China

Keywords:: climate change; MaxEnt; prediction; species distribution model; unendangered species

PACS:: -

DOI:: 10.16373/j.cnki.ahr.190058

Abstract:: Repaid global climate changes in temperature and rainfall influence the species distribution and diversity patterns. Chinse skink is a common species with large population and widely distribution in China. To access potential effect of climate changes on the unendangered species, we used the maximum-entropy modeling (MaxEnt) method to estimate the current and future potential distributions of Chinese Skink. Predictions were based on two periods (2050 and 2070), three general circulation models (GCMs: BCC-CSM1-1, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5), four representative concentration pathways (RCP: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.0) and 28 environmental variables including topography, human impact, bio-climate and habitat. We found that the model were better fit with high values in AUC, KAPPA and TSS. The jackknife tests showed that variables of BIO9, BIO14, BIO15, HFI and GDP were relatively higher contributions to the model. Although the size of suitable areas for skink have less effect by future climate change under full and mull dispersal hypothesis, we should still focuse on the effect of human impact and climate changes on the protection and management for Chinese skink due to the variables uncertainty.

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Asian Herpetological Research[ISSN:2095-0357/CN:51-1735/Q]

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